Hot spot policing

There is strong evidence that hot spot policing in small geographic areas reduces crime (Campbell-Braga 2019, Braga 2022, Petersen 2024, CEBCP-Hot spots, Santos 2021). Regardless of policing tactics, hot spot policing in micro-geographic locations (e.g., street segments, blocks) is more effective to reduce crime than hot spot policing in large areas (Petersen 2024). Implementing hot spot policing does not lead to crime displacement into surrounding areas (Campbell-Braga 2019, Koper 2021a, Rosenfeld 2014).

Applying problem-oriented policing and patrol in hot spots has been shown to reduce crime for greater time periods and larger amounts than increasing the level of traditional police actions (Petersen 2024, Campbell-Braga 2012a, CEBCP-Hot spots). Proactive, systematic patrol in hot spots based on crime incident data from the prior 1-2 weeks can have long-term effects on reducing crime (Santos 2021, Koper 2021a).

Offender-focused policing tactics may reduce crime when applied to smaller hot spots (Groff 2015, Santos 2016): such tactics including surveillance and police stops may be more effective in reducing crime than high visibility car patrol in hot spots (Smith 2024). Deploying surveillance devices in hot spot policing efforts also appears to reduce crime (Koper 2013). Overall, police presence focused on specific areas, times, and types of crime have greater effects to reduce crime (Dau 2023). Increased enforcement activity and time spent in hot spots may reduce police calls, theft, and firearm assaults (Corsaro 2023, Mohler 2015, Telep 2014, Rosenfeld 2014). However, youth-focused problem-oriented policing in hot spots does not lead to a reduction in youth violent crime (Taylor 2024). Traffic stops in hot spots are associated with more impaired driving arrests and citations and appear to be more cost-effective than traffic stops outside hot spots (Maistros 2018).

Studies suggest that hot spot policing efforts have short-term negative effects on residents’ perceptions of procedural justice, but increase their willingness to cooperate with police, sense of community, social cohesion, and shared ownership in the long term (Kochel 2017, Kochel 2019). Other studies suggest that applying problem-oriented policing and patrol in hot spots, when implemented intensively with positive police-community interactions, can improve residents’ perceptions of police legitimacy and procedural justice (Koper 2024, Koper 2022). Hot spot policing has the potential to prevent health risk behaviors (e.g., drug use or public drinking) and improve residents’ mental health and overall health by reducing violent crime and fear of crime in community (Jensen 2019, Dong 2020, Goldberg 2019).

Low levels of dosage in policing in hot spots, police officers’ low motivation for and skeptical attitude toward hot spot policing, and organizational resistance are challenges and barriers to producing positive impacts (Taylor 2024, Ariel 2023, Schaefer 2021). Experts recommend the use of crime analysis to identify micro-hot spot locations, regular and daily directed patrol visits, officer training in procedural justice, policing practices that emphasize community engagement and build trust between the police and community members for effective and respectful policing in hot spots (Koper 2021a, Weisburd 2022, Weisburd 2021).

It is unclear what impact hot spot policing may have on racial disparities and disparities across other population groups. Available evidence suggests that there was no difference in arrest rates between white and minoritized individuals after implementing hot spot policing in Los Angeles (Brantingham 2018). A Minneapolis-based study indicates that traffic stops in crime hot spots are associated with more discretionary searches of Black drivers, but not with those of Hispanic or white drivers (Briggs 2017). Careful targeting with a focus on specific streets or blocks within a community is suggested to prevent any racial bias in hot spot policing (Weisburd 2016). Researchers recommend consideration of the underlying cause of crime concentration and critical analysis of policing efforts in hot spots to prevent negative impact on racial disparities (Brunson 2024).

Increases in time spent on directed patrol tactics (i.e., foot or car patrols) in hot spots of neighborhoods with higher poverty rates can improve social cohesion among residents in the long term compared to standard policing (Kochel 2019). Individuals with mental health issues who live in areas with high concentrations of crime (i.e., crime hot spots) are likely to report greater fear and less trust of the police than those who live in areas with less concentrations of crime (i.e., crime cold spots): police officers should pay attention to safety and the quality of life among hot spot residents including those with mental health issues (Goldberg 2019). Support for hot spot policing in the general public seems to vary by race and ethnicity and income level: Black, Hispanic, and individuals with low incomes are less likely to be supportive of using more resources in hot spot policing and prefer situational prevention and policing all areas equally (Metcalfe 2018).

Institutional racism in law enforcement and police officer racial prejudice has led to differential treatment of racially and ethnically minoritized populations by police in the U.S. (Carvalho 2022). Police in the U.S. originated with slave patrols in the 1700s that used excessive force in attempt to control people who were enslaved (Ward 2022, NAACP-Police origins). Law enforcement has a long history of both enforcing discriminatory policies, such as Jim Crow laws, as well as disproportionately targeting Black communities (History-Jim Crow laws, Mesic 2018, Siegel 2020a). Discriminatory policing and police violence have produced justified distrust for the police among racially minoritized individuals and communities (Carvalho 2022, NBER-Ang 2024).

Hot spot policing in the U.S. emerged based on the place-based theories about routine activity and crime pattern that explain the concentration of crime at places (Kochel 2019). Since the success of the first experiments in Minnesota in 1980s, hot spot policing has become popular as police departments increasingly gained the capacity to analyze crime data and identify crime hot spots (Campbell-Braga 2019). However, researchers warn that implementing such placed-based policing strategies without understanding the underlying causes of crime concentration and critically analyzing policing actions may worsen racial disparities (Brunson 2024). Researchers recommend laws that shape fair policing actions, for example, allocating racially equitable police stops in crime hot spots that are based on the higher evidentiary standards (Lautenschlager 2024, Wheeler 2020).

• Where are crime hot spots in your community? What data and analysis are used to identify hot spots? How can the police department identify hot spots fairly and equitably?
• What are the underlying causes of crime concentration? How are the hot spots associated with community disadvantages (e.g., community environment, infrastructure, etc.)? How are the lives of the residents impacted in hot spots?
• How could police and the community create effective and fair public safety strategies?

Hot spot policing has been implemented in many cities, for example, Minneapolis, Sacramento, and Philadelphia (CrimeSolutions-Hot spots, CEBCP-Hot spots).

CEBCP-Hot spots - Center for Evidence-Based Crime Policy (CEBCP). Evidence-based policing matrix: Research on micro-places.

Telep-Hot spots - Telep, C. W., & Hibdon, J. (2019). Understanding and responding to crime and disorder hot spots. U.S. Department of Justice (Problem-Oriented Guides for Police: Problem-Solving Tools Series No. 14). Office of Justice Programs.

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Ariel 2023 - Ariel, B. (2023). Implementation issues with hot spot policing. International Journal of Law, Crime and Justice, 75, 100629.

Braga 2022* - Braga, A.A., & Weisburd, D.L. (2022). Does hot spots policing have meaningful impacts on crime? Findings from an alternative approach to estimating effect sizes from place-based program evaluations. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 38, 1-22.

Brantingham 2018 - Brantingham, P. J., Valasik, M., & Mohler, G. O. (2018). Does predictive policing lead to biased arrests? Results from a randomized controlled trial. Statistics and Public Policy, 5(1), 1-6.

Briggs 2017* - Briggs, S. J., & Keimig, K. A. (2017). The impact of police deployment on racial disparities in discretionary searches. Race and Justice, 7(3), 256-275.

Brunson 2024* - Brunson, R. K., Vélez, M. B., & Tapia, E. (2024). A race-centered critique of place-based research and policing. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 78, 101959.

Campbell-Braga 2012a - Braga, A., Papachristos, A., & Hureau, D. (2012). Hot spots policing effects on crime. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 8(1), 1-96.

Campbell-Braga 2019 - Braga, A. A., Turchan, B., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2019). Hot spots policing of small geographic areas effects on crime. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 15(3), e1046.

Carvalho 2022 - Carvalho, A. A. S., Mizael, T. M., & Sampaio, A. A. S. (2021). Racial prejudice and police stops: A systematic review of the empirical literature. Behavior Analysis in Practice, 15(4), 1213–1220.

CEBCP-Hot spots - Center for Evidence-Based Crime Policy (CEBCP). Evidence-based policing matrix: Research on micro-places.

Corsaro 2023* - Corsaro, N., Engel, R. S., Herold, T. D., Yildirim, M., & Motz, R. T. (2023). Hot spots policing in Las Vegas: Results from a blocked randomized controlled trial in chronic violent crime locations. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 19, 213-235.

CrimeSolutions-Hot spots - National Institute of Justice, CrimeSolutions.gov. Practice profile: Hot spots policing.

Dau 2023* - Dau, P.M., Vandeviver, C., Dewinter, M., Witlox, F., & Beken, T. V. (2023). Policing directions: A systematic review on the effectiveness of police presence. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 29, 191–225.

Dong 2020 - Dong, B., White, C. M., & Weisburd, D. L. (2020). Poor health and violent crime hot spots: Mitigating the undesirable co-occurrence through focused place-based interventions. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 58(6), 799-806.

Goldberg 2019* - Goldberg, V., White, C., & Weisburd, D. (2019). Perspectives of people with mental health problems at hot spots: Attitudes and perceptions of safety, crime, and the police. Behavioral Sciences & the Law, 37(6), 650-664.

Groff 2015* - Groff, E. R., Ratcliffe, J. H., Haberman, C. P., Sorg, E. T., Joyce, N. M., & Taylor, R. B. (2015). Does what police do at hot spots matter? The Philadelphia policing tactics experiment. Criminology, 53(1), 23-53.

History-Jim Crow laws - History.com. (2024, January 22). Jim Crow laws.

Jensen 2019* - Jensen, R. H. (2019). What has place got to do with it? Hot spots policing to address physical and mental health. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 35(2), 124-141.

Kochel 2017* - Kochel, T. R., & Weisburd, D. (2017). Assessing community consequences of implementing hot spots policing in residential areas: Findings from a randomized field trial. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 13(2), 143-170.

Kochel 2019* - Kochel, T. R. & Weisburd, D. (2019). The impact of hot spots policing on collective efficacy: Findings from a randomized field trial. Justice Quarterly, 36(5), 900-928.

Koper 2013* - Koper, C. S., Taylor, B. G., & Woods, D. J. (2013). A randomized test of initial and residual deterrence from directed patrols and use of license plate readers at crime hot spots. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 9(2), 213-244.

Koper 2021a* - Koper, C. S., Lum, C., Wu, X., & Hegarty, T. (2021). The long-term and system-level impacts of institutionalizing hot spot policing in a small city. Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice, 15(2), 1110-1128.

Koper 2022 - Koper, C. S., Taylor, B. G., Liu, W., & Wu, X. (2022). Police activities and community views of police in crime hot spots. Justice Quarterly, 39(7), 1400-1427.

Koper 2024* - Koper, C. S., Liu, W., Taylor, B. G., Wu, X., Johnson, W. D., & Sheridan, J. (2024). The effects of hot spot policing on community experiences and perceptions in a time of COVID-19 and calls for police reform. Police Quarterly, 27(3), 292-334.

Lautenschlager 2024* - Lautenschlager, R. (2024). The geography of (un)reasonable suspicion: Rethinking causes of racial disparities in police stops. Law & Policy, 46(1), 45-62.

Maistros 2018* - Maistros, A., & Schneider, W. H. (2018). A comparison of overtime patrol stops made inside and out of cluster identified hotspots. Traffic Injury Prevention, 19(3), 235-240.

Mesic 2018* - Mesic, A., Franklin, L., Cansever, A., Potter, F., Sharma, A., Knopov, A., & Siegel, M. (2018). The relationship between structural racism and Black-white disparities in fatal police shootings at the state level. Journal of the National Medical Association, 110(2), 106–116.

Metcalfe 2018* - Metcalfe, C., & Pickett, J. T. (2018). The extent and correlates of public support for deterrence reforms and hot spots policing. Law & Society Review. 52(2),471-502.

Mohler 2015* - Mohler, G. O., Short, M. B., Malinowski, S., Johnson, M., Tita, G. E., Bertozzi, A. L., & Brantingham, P. J. (2015). Randomized controlled field trials of predictive policing. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 110(512), 1399-1411.

NAACP-Police origins - NAACP. The origins of modern day policing. Retrieved August 28, 2024.

NBER-Ang 2024 - Ang, D., Bencsik, P., Bruhn, J. M., & Derenoncourt, E. (2024). Community engagement with law enforcement after high-profile acts of police violence [Working Paper 32243]. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Petersen 2024* - Petersen, K., Weisburd, D., Hinkle, J. C., Telep, C. W., & Fay, S. (2024). Does level of geography influence proactive policing's impact on crime? A synthesis of systematic reviews of three evidence-based policing strategies. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 78, 101988.

Rosenfeld 2014* - Rosenfeld, R., Deckard, M. J., & Blackburn, E. (2014). The effects of directed patrol and self-initiated enforcement on firearm violence: A randomized controlled study of hot spot policing. Criminology, 52(3), 428-449.

Santos 2016* - Santos, R. B., & Santos, R. G. (2016). Offender-focused police intervention in residential burglary and theft from vehicle hot spots: A partially blocked randomized control trial. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 12(3), 373-402.

Santos 2021 - Santos, R.B., & Santos, R.G. (2021). Proactive police response in property crime micro-time hot spots: Results from a partially-blocked blind random controlled trial. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 37, 247–265.

Schaefer 2021* - Schaefer, B. P., Hughes, T., & Cameron Stelzig, W. (2021). Hot spots across the metropolis: Evaluating hot spots directed patrol at city and suburban locations. Justice Quarterly, 38(1), 101-123.

Siegel 2020a - Siegel, M. (2020). Racial disparities in fatal police shootings: An empirical analysis informed by critical race theory. Boston University Law Review, 100, 1069–1092.

Smith 2024* - Smith, M. R., Tillyer, R., & Tregle,B. (2024). Hot spots policing as part of a city-wide violent crime reduction strategy: Initial evidence from Dallas. Journal of Criminal Justice, 90, 102091.

Taylor 2024* - Taylor, B.G., Liu, W., Zalsha, S., Sheridan-Johnson, J., Sabol, G., & Lacy, C. R. (2024). The impact of a youth-focused problem-oriented policing initiative on crime: Findings from a randomized controlled trial in three cities. Journal of Experimental Criminology.

Telep 2014* - Telep, C. W., Mitchell, R. J., & Weisburd, D. (2014). How much time should the police spend at crime hot spots? Answers from a police agency directed randomized field trial in Sacramento, California. Justice Quarterly, 31(5), 905-933.

Ward 2022 - Ward, M. (2022). The legacy of slavery and contemporary racial disparities in arrest rates. Sociology of Race and Ethnicity, 8(4), 534–552.

Weisburd 2016 - Weisburd, D. (2016). Does hot spots policing inevitably lead to unfair and abusive police practices, or can we maximize both fairness and effectiveness in the new proactive policing? University of Chicago Legal Forum, 16, 661-689.

Weisburd 2021* - Weisburd, D., Gill, C., Wooditch, A., Barritt, W., & Murphy, J. (2021). Building collective action at crime hot spots: Findings from a randomized field experiment. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 17, 161-191.

Weisburd 2022 - Weisburd, D., Telep, C. W., Vovak, H., Zastrow, T., Braga, A. A., & Turchan, B. (2022). Reforming the police through procedural justice training: A multicity randomized trial at crime hot spots. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 119 (14), e2118780119.

Wheeler 2020* - Wheeler, A. P. (2020). Allocating police resources while limiting racial inequality. Justice Quarterly, 37(5), 842-868.